One of the problems with telephone polls is that polling “likely voters” means asking people if they plan on voting. Unfortunately, this creates a very large, and very well published bias. Even the day after elections when people are polled and they’re asked if they voted, 96% of the people polled say yes. While in reality, only about 2/3 of the American public is registered to vote.

Consider this - if you were to have called up Paris Hilton before the last presidential election and asked her if she was planning on voting, she would have slurred something about vote or die, but it turns out that she ended up forgetting to vote. These numbers were taken from the United States Election Assistance Commission.

Age - Percentage of Total US Vote:

18-20 - 3.21%
21-24 - 4.41%
25-44 - 39.08%
45-64 - 32.96%
65+ - 20.34%

Obama polls extraordinarily well in young voters. If the president was decided by American Idol voters, Obama would likely sweep. But, as the numbers show, 18-24 year olds do not influence elections. Well except for this guy. Also, people in the 18-24 year old group tend to vote in the same proportions as their parents. While current polls show that Obama is doing well, the actual votes will be a different matter.

Voting is a pain in the ass for younger demographics. They are busier. Having worked at polling places for multiple campaigns, I know that old people love to vote. They look forward to it. They plan for it. It means they get to ride the bus and get out of the retirement home for a little bit. In Chicago, old people are so into voting that they’ll vote for years, even after they’re dead. Also the elderly are more dependent on government services than any other demographic. Ergo, they have more at stake than any other demographic in the elections, and are more personally involved.

Obama also has some serious cultural attitudes that he won’t be able to overcome with the elderly. One of them obviously being his race, but also his attitude and polices. While I appreciate his candor, my grandmother, a very accepting, open minded individual, will never vote for a candidate that has admitted to using cocaine, regardless of the circumstances.

Polls this early in the game are also immensely inaccurate. Consider how fast McCain has fallen off and Thompson has risen into glory. If there is one thing that I can count on from the American public, it’s that whoever is popular now, will definitely not be in 18 months.

Presidents don’t get elected because of one good speech.

Obama does not only have a lack of experience, he also seems to have a lack of substance. Obama has pledged to keep his campagin clean, and above board, which is nice. It’s refreshing, and it would be beautiful if it worked, but it won’t. This is America, and Obama has spent most of his life in higher education or working in non-profits, and it shows. He does not have a personality that Americans are willing to elect as their commander in chief.

Let me put it another way:

John Kerry served two tours in Vietnam and recieved three purple hearts because, as one does before they recieve a purple heart, he was injured in battle - three times. He eventually acheived the rank of lieutenant. Despite all of this, the Bush campaign still managed to convince enough Americans that Kerry was too soft to run the military. Convincing the American public that Obama would be too soft would be a little bit easier than painting Rosie O’Donnell as fat and obnoxious.

Senators don’t get elected. I don’t know if I’m willing to make a whole post on why they don’t since this topic has been beaten like the LA Clippers but its true. Senators do not get elected president.

Here’s someone with more free time than me with an explanation.

if you don’t have access to ProQuest check out a summary here.

Obama is also too liberal. Remember when Dean imploded? We remember when it happened because we heard the infamous scream, but the scream wasn’t what brought him down. It was electability. Dean was too far left, and the democrats didn’t think he would be able to get elected. Regardless of how much they liked him personally, they would have preferred voting for someone that they weren’t in love with that would appeal to more moderate voters, rather than someone they loved but was too far left, allowing someone that they hated (Bush) to get reelected. Unfortunately, it didn’t work out that way. The last time a Democrat got elected president, it was done by a relativly unknown governor of a small southern state with a lot of charisma. If I was a betting man (which I am) I would place my money on another charismatic governor of a small southern state (which I did.)

But Josh, what about all that cash he has?

Good point, guy that speaks in italics. Money does decide elections, but its not the only thing. For evidence, look at Forbes, Perot, and Maria Heinz. Perot did make amazing progress, and he deserves his page in the history books, but he didn’t get elected.

Please don’t get all of this bashing wrong. I don’t dislike Obama. I’m glad he’s running. Hopefully he’ll be able to force the other candidates to deal with some new issues (Hopefully because he hasn’t done so yet). Hopefully he’ll be able to provide a new perspective on some of the current topics (Hopefully because he hasn’t done so yet).

Sheila,

I believe you’re mistaken that politicians run this country. Politicians are “supposed” to represent their constituents in matters involving the government. The government was set in place for defense and to facilitate free markets. I’m not sure what you mean by the word “run” when you said that politicians run this county, but the fact that you believe that this is correct shows how deep the problems in this country run. Since I don’t know how old you are, I’m going to run you through a quick history lesson.

After World War II, up until the fall of the Berlin Wall, the United States was involved in the Cold War. The Cold War was a competition between the US, and the United Socialist Soviet Republic. The government of the USSR actually ran the county. They didn’t have free markets, and they believed that the politicians did a better job of running the country. How many hours you worked, how much work you did, and what you received at the end of the day were all matters for the government to decide. The crumbling of the Berlin Wall proved to the world, well except for you, Sheila, that having politicians run things is not an effective form of government.

As for my knowledge of music. “I Don’t Wanna Miss a Thing” is proof of just how detrimental sobriety is to one’s music career. I wish I could give you more examples (editor’s note: “Pink”), but they haven’t released a new album since ‘98. This point isn’t even worth arguing as it’s a well established fact that addicition makes better music. The short list includes The Doors, Joplin, Hendrix, Nirvana, Clapton, and Blind Melon (editor’s note: Zeppelin, Chili Peppers, Rolling Stones, Beatles, Failure). That’s just the short list.

Who says that pop culture isn’t a priority? Your US Senate has spent more hours discussing Janet Jackson’s breast than the AIDS problem in Africa. In 2004 both houses of Congress passed laws increasing the fines for acts that are deemed inappropriate on TV. However, the same year the two houses were unable to come to an agreement on a non-binding resolution related to US opinion on the AIDS epidemic in Africa. I suggest you take a long sobering look at the discretionary budget. Bill Gates, George Soros, and Warren Buffet have all spent more individually on foreign aid then our entire government. Last year the US government spent $8.8 billion on aid to Africa. To put that in perspective, Americans spend approximately $7 billion a year on gum. Don’t blame me for these skewed priorities.

Meanwhile, our governement has steadfastly refused to provide aid to the millions who are starving in Sudan as a result of the Darfur tragedies, while at the same time spending Billions of dollars invading another country that, in a historical sense, had reached realitive stability, and has resulted in excess of 65,000 dead. Sheila, I assume, maybe incorrectly, that you pay income tax. Next time you look at your pay check see how much of it goes to income tax. If you’re like most Americans then that number is probably somewhere between 1/4 and 1/3. So just to be conservative lets assume that 1/4 of your work goes to the government. Half of that, which is 1/8 (You seem like the type of person that might need help with fractions), 1/8 of your paycheck goes to the war in Iraq. So, the first 5 of your 40 hours per week is generating money to be used solely for causing harm to humans in Iraq. And you think I’m the one with the problems?

So what if I let you decide what to listen to on the radio. Hilliary is only going to let you pick one song.

Please note that these numbers are approximations. They’re not inherently “correct” but they are what I feel is correct.

Now that the second quarter is over, it’s time to release our fund raising figures. As it turns out we’re right on John McCain’s tail!

Obama, I know you’re following our progress too! You’re next!

It takes a lifetime of growing and learning before a person can truly know how to live life, but by then we’ve already scaled to the peak and begun our descent down the other side. People are limited by a restrictive lifespan. A country is not… necessarily. This has to be deep in our minds always.

Just like our ancestors were tired of having their hands held by a mother nation, everyone yearns for the freedom and responsibility that comes with independence. This is why I have to question the legitimacy of beer distributors being open on July 4th. Do we really want to be known as a a country of people that can’t plan ahead and buy their beer on July 3rd? Some poor guy has to work on our Independence Day because you insist on waiting until the last minute.

So, the next time our nation’s birthday comes along, and you’re planning to celebrate like it’s 1776, get out there and show the rest of the world what we Americans are made of. Buy your beer ahead of time. And buy a little extra. Beer is never wasted.

The second will be to let you, the American people, choose what you want to hear on the radio.

For some time now I’ve thought that music generally sucks. I wasn’t sure if I was getting older and by proxy was no longer cool. To be fair, no one, with the possible exception of Jay-Z, makes listenable music that expounds of the virtues of making contributions to a Roth IRA. My suspicions where confirmed the other day. I was having a conversation with a very green youth named junior.

This quotation summarizes the conversation in whole, “It’s just not fair. You guys had Nirvana, and what the (expletive deleted) do I get? Little (expletive deleted) John? That (expletive deleted) sucks!”

At a time when every other form of media has begun to discover the long tail, and all of the beauty, arcane and odd, within it, the music industry has focused solely on squeezing every drop of sweet blood out of their (small) grasp on the fat tail. The end result is that somehow music has been pulled so far into the middle that no one likes it any more.

This is a problem that will take decisive leadership to solve. In order to do so, I promise, that as President, I will do everything in my power to get Steven Tyler re-addicted to heroin. I saw the man at a Wal-Green’s once, and he seemed nice enough. He has a beautiful family. I don’t feel good about having to do so, but someone has to make a sacrifice, and as your President I will be proud to take that sacrifice. Whether you like it or not, the truth is that sometimes Presidents have to get their hands dirty for the good of the county, and at least Aerosmith won’t suck any more.

I will also solve what we here at the center call “The Gwen Stefanie Problem”, and make sure that I get legislation passed that bans anyone who gets regular airplay on the Delilah show from producing a rap album. Part of the legislation will also include funding to help cure RRRD (Rock and Roll Related Deaths).

As for the future, I’m at a crossroads, and I’m going to let you, America, help make the decisions. I don’t think that having troops in Iraq is helping us out, or the Iraqi’s. However, music certainly crested during the Vietnam war. I hope that if we let this thing drag on for a while that we’ll bring back the passion, but the first signs of the new wave political music hasn’t been very promising. This is a topic that requires further discussion.

Modern day politics have degraded into a harsh territory, ventured upon by only the strongest - and often craziest - of people. Intelligent plans, pursuance of goals and the long forgotten dream of making the world a better place have been cast by the wayside in favor of mud-slinging and party-on-party standoffs. It seems more politicians are focused on stopping the other team rather than favoring the needs and desires of their own people.

Things need to change. Nobody wants to live in such a divided country. I’m not here to blame anyone. Such activities are more suited for talk-show hosts and politicians. What this country needs is a President, not another politician. We need someone that is willing to get things done without breaking the rules, the law. We need someone that is President of the United States of America, not President of 26% of the country. We need someone that isn’t obsessed with party lines. Democrats have a lot of good ideas. So do Republicans. No President can be successful by attempting to consistently please half the nation. That’s not what Democracy is about. That’s not what this country is about.

Unfortunately, our politics has degraded to little more than day time television. No longer are candidates judged on their goals, dreams and plans for the future, instead we judge people based on the mistakes of their past. The content of what someone says is not nearly as important as whose mouth is moving.

I come to you today to tell you that I’ve made mistakes, and while I’m not proud of everything I’ve done, I’m proud of the lessons I’ve learned along the way. And so, in the spirit of honesty and full disclosure, here are my responses to the things that you may see and read about me in the coming weeks.

• That wasn’t me.
• That was legal in that state at that time.
• That wasn’t me either.
• Thats not even possible.
• She liked it.
• That wasn’t cocaine.
• I don’t even know what that is.
• That wasn’t me either.
• That wasn’t my arm.
• That was me and it was awesome.
• She was 18, I saw her ID.
• I’m not gay; it was a very confusing time in my life.
• That wasn’t me.
• I did not have sex with that woman.
• That’s not actually uranium.

Sincerely, Josh Druce

Remember: this country needs a President, not a politician.

Stay tuned for a message from your President.